El Niño to bring big changes for Canterbury weather
Grey clouds hovering over Christchurch in 2019. Photo: Newstalk ZB/Kelly Shakespeare.
Aotearoa and the Pacific is due to experience a significant change in weather in the upcoming months as we shift climate cycles from a triple dip La Niña event to the opposite direction.
The World Meteorological Organisation recently declared this change, and New Zealand is forecasted to transition to an El Niño event by the end of August, if not this month.
So, what does all of this mean for us South Island Kiwis dwelling on the east coast? And what is an El Niño and La Niña climate cycle? Let's break it down.
La Niña refers to the cooling phase of the waters in the western Pacific, while El Niño is the warming phase.
During El Niño, that heat from the water is then redistributed, causing warmer water to spread out farther east instead of being concentrated in the western equatorial Pacific - this heat can even reach as far as South America.
El Niño and La Niña as climate drivers influence rainfall, temperature and wind patterns worldwide, including New Zealand.
These climate cycles occur on average every few years, lasting up to a year or two.
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) Meteorologist Thapi Makgabutlane said it is important to note that although El Niño has a major influence over our weather here in New Zealand, it only accounts for less than a quarter of the variability in rainfall and temperature that we would see, "so, it's one piece of a much larger puzzle".
Makgabutlane said, "during El Niño over New Zealand, we tend to see more westerly winds, which will bring a higher chance of above-average rainfall for the western parts of the country. And then, over the eastern parts of the country, we tend to see drier conditions, especially in summer, due to those westerly winds."
Down south in Christchurch, we can expect "more westerly and south-westerly winds to come through."
"We would typically expect a cooler-than-average winter because it brings in a bit more southerly winds for that region, and we would also expect to see a windy spring for much of the country."
Makgabutlane said that because of El Niño's windier conditions, drier weather and possibly warmer conditions, we often see an increased risk of fire danger in the Canterbury region.
During an El Niño climate cycle, students who like to venture out to the beach can typically expect the sea around New Zealand to be cooler.
Around campus, we may see students wearing windbreakers on gustier days, adjusting to the possible heat by shedding a few layers of clothing and using hydrating moisturisers to combat the drier weather expected during the upcoming El Niño climate cycle.